Gas turbine market projections | 2031

The gas turbine market represents a key technology for energy generation, a crucial role that ensures solid market predictions in the coming decade. 

Showcasing a consistent growth since 2021, the current preoccupations around sustainability and energy efficiency have taken center stage in the gas turbine market. At the same time, these movements have been accompanied by escalating regulation around carbon emissions that aims at supporting a definitive shift towards green practices.

Significant advancements such as TIAC technology are pushing turbines’ efficiency to new levels, thus confirming these systems’ relevance for the coming decades, as verified by key gas turbine market forecasts.

Gas turbine market evolution since 2021

Solid growth in the gas turbine market

A look at the main gas turbine market projections showcases this technology’s expected steady expansion:

• Forecasts by IMARC Group see the gas turbine market size growing from US$ 25.2 Billion in 2023 to US$ 33.8 Billion by 2032, with a growth rate (CAGR) of 3.23% during that period.
• Allied Market Research is even more optimistic regarding growth rates: the firm valued the market at $19.6 billion in 2021, and foresees it growing to reach $32.1 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 5.1%.

Key market drivers 

On the whole, the key forecasts mentioned above attribute growth for the gas turbine market to the following developments and trends: 

• The rise of turbines as a versatile, efficient option for power generation, at a time when energy demand levels are escalating sharply. While electricity consumption has been restrained in advanced economies in 2023, growing economies are growing at unprecedented rates. The result, according to IEA figures, is that global demand for electricity grew by 2.2% in 2023, and is expected to grow at faster rates in the next three years (an average of 3.4% annually). This, in turn, has stimulated remarkable investments in infrastructure for power generation, with gas turbines taking a progressively important role.
• Increasingly strict emission control regulations stimulating the transition from coal-driven turbines to gas-fired power generation in a number of fields (from manufacturing and industrial sectors, to the renovation of thermal power plants to incorporate gas power generation). 
• Gas turbine market growth is also linked to this equipment’s role in the aviation industry.

Competitiveness and market share in the gas turbine market

The report by IMARC cites these as some of the key players in the gas turbine market today:

• Kawasaki Heavy Industries
• Siemens
• GE
• MHPS
• Ansaldo
• Harbin Electric
• OPRA
• MAN Diesel
• Solar Turbines
• Vericor Power
• BHEL
• Centrax
• Zorya

Additionally, as part of their exhaustive market analysis, the report mentions the following models as presenting the largest market share segments:

• According to technology, combined cycle gas turbines
• According to design type, heavy duty (frame) models
• According to rated capacity, above 3000 MW
• According to end user, Power Generation initiatives
• According to region, Asia Pacific is leading the market 

Impact of COVID-19 on gas turbine market

As COVID-19 forced many industrial manufacturers to halt their operations, gas turbines also experienced a reduction in demand. In fact, the power sector saw major disruptions during the pandemic, with investment projects being delayed as uncertainty took over economies around the world, involving most industries, supply chains and workforces.

Challenges and opportunities after COVID-19: market recovery

Evaluated with a broader view, the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global markets can be understood as a crisis that, along with challenges, also brought along a number of previously unseen opportunities. 

In fact, the pandemic years were a major transformational force for many industries at a global scale, and the gas turbine market was no exception. The momentary halt provided an opportunity to review processes and investments, and provided an unprecedented stimulus for technologies that help industries move closer to sustainable and highly-efficient practices. In this context, gas turbines have been the technology of choice for a number of initiatives seeking to move away from fossil fuels and embrace gas-based power.

The COVID-19 effect is also further promoted by adjacent trends evolving in parallel, including major decarbonization efforts pushed by international and national regulations. With gas turbines emitting less harmful gasses than other alternatives, they have become the “go-to” option for major investments across the globe for both new and retrofitting projects. 

While natural gas price volatility linked to geopolitical issues must also necessarily be put into the equation, figures speak of a significant market rebound: as reported by Gas Turbine World, they anticipated orders for this technology to increase about 10.9% comparing 2023 and 2024 numbers in terms of measured megawatts; and 3.9% when looking at unit order numbers. As a particularly significant example, the same source cites how in 2023 the USA power grid added 9,132 MW in new natural gas-fired turbine power generating capacities.

Gas turbine market forecast until 2031: future trends

The growth drivers cited above and in key forecasts for the gas turbine market are accompanied by important developments pushing the industrial gas turbine to new levels of efficiency and sustainability.

Technological advances in industrial gas turbines

The main technological developments in industrial gas turbines are unleashing a new era for this equipment’s efficiency, with reduced operating costs and reduced fuel consumption as additional collateral advantages.

Key developments in optimizing gas turbine performance include:

• The introduction of new and improved materials that maximize reliability (with reduced downtime) and longer lifespans of equipment, as well as a reduction in maintenance needs
• Enhanced combustion systems and combustors with higher efficiency as a goal
• Advanced cooling technologies, which push efficiency and sustainability, as we explain below
• The optimization of mechanical drives for compressor trains thanks to TIAC technologies, a development that enhances power output for gas turbines even in high ambient temperatures. 
• Improved smart control systems capable of efficiently accommodating intermittent energy demand and energy generation.

Sustainability and the future of gas turbines

As seen across the article and the key gas turbine market forecasts cited above, sustainability is at the heart and center of all major gas turbine developments today and in the future.

As such, innovation initiatives are assuming multiple forms in shaping what the next generation of gas turbines looks like today. Some of the most noteworthy today involve: 

• New formulas for combustors that minimize harmful emissions, including low nitrogen oxide combustors and hydrogen-fueled turbines. Today, blends featuring 50% hydrogen are already feasible, with combustion technologies also evolving to accommodate 100% hydrogen power generation
• Carbon Capture and Storage initiatives for both new and retrofit systems
• Efficiency optimizations provided by TIAC technologies. Turbine Inlet Air Cooling technologies are being key to optimize gas turbine output, thanks to cooling inlet air, which enables significant increases in power output and efficiency rates. TIAC works by reducing air temperatures and guaranteeing their stability, so that air mass flows for gas turbines increases even with ambient temperature fluctuations or warm temperatures.

The result is power output that is boosted between 20-30%, reduced turbine power losses (between 15-30% less), all with less capital expenditures compared to the installation of new gas turbines or, in other words, lower prices per generated megawatt compared to a new GT plant. Additionally, because less turbines are employed for maximum power generation, gas turbine pollution is also reduced. A set of sustainability advantages that has led TIAC to be recognized as a green technologies that qualifies for carbon credits.

As sustainability becomes a crucial aspect in shaping global energy industries, all gas turbine market projections point towards innovation initiatives that seek to prioritize both energy efficiency and clean energy generation.

In this context, the state-of-the-art TIAC solutions stand out for their capacity to boost gas turbine optimization. Paired with ARANER‘s cutting-edge thermal engineering, our TIAC technologies represent key allies for companies looking to enhance gas turbine performance while putting both sustainability and cost-efficiency at the center.

Our successful project with Oil & Gas company Aramco has showcased how top-tier TIAC technology can enhance gas turbine performance: across three Independent Power Projects, our TIAC systems guaranteed more than 146.16 MW of extra power, with low capital costs.

Interested in learning more about TIAC technologies and their role in providing top efficiency for breakthrough gas turbine market initiatives? Get in touch with our team and discover how we can help you.